Drawing on my experience tracking viewership data since 2016, I'm skeptical of such broad metrics. "Player count" can be a malleable statistic, potentially used to inflate perceived success, especially if initial sales are underwhelming.
Data from Alinea Analytics, a games industry tracking firm, offers a more granular view of Shadows' performance in its first three days. While the source of these slides is unclear—data leaks are common across industries—it suggests the game likely sold around 1 million copies during its opening weekend. The provided chart focuses on Steam and PS5 sales, platforms representative of core gamer demographics. Based on typical market share for a game like this, Xbox sales likely represent approximately one-third of the PS5 figures.
Ubisoft's 4th quarter call won't likely be for a few weeks (longer if the news is bad). Best guess is that Shadows will not keep the sharks at bay but announcing a remaster of Assassin's Creed Black Flag and a firm release date in the next fiscal quarter may be the lifeline the company needs to make it through Q1 2025.
